Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042040 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025 Deep convection has continued to pulse today near the center of Octave. Recent visible and microwave satellite imagery indicates a well-organized inner-core structure, which was confirmed by a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass. Based on the current satellite presentation and a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the intensity is increased slightly to 55 kt for this advisory. The storm has begun to turn more northward and is now moving north-northwestward with an estimated motion of 330/5 kt. A continued northward and eventual eastward turn is forecast this weekend and early next week. The track forecast depends somewhat on the interaction of Octave with Tropical Storm Priscilla to its east and a trough to its north during the next several days. The NHC track forecast for this advisory is similar to the prior advisory and represents a blend of track consensus aids and the Google DeepMind solution. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak for the next 24 h. During this period, conditions are forecast to remain marginally favorable for some slight intensification. However, after 24 h as Octave turns toward the east, wind shear is expected to increase as the storm interacts with trough and the larger tropical storm to its east. Late this weekend, Octave is forecast to begin a weakening trend that will continue until the system dissipates after 96 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the prior advisory during the next day or so, and it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.9N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.3N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.7N 123.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 15.9N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 16.0N 121.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 15.8N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 15.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 15.3N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett
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