Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025
513 WTPZ45 KNHC 040841 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025 Octave is still trying to become better organized this morning, as shear starts to decrease over the system. In recent satellite images, a large convective band has started to become better established on the western side of the system with cold cloud tops near -80 C. However, recent satellite-derived winds depicted peak winds of only 34 kt, although it did not sample the convective band to the west. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held steady and range from 45 to 55 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the lower satellite derived wind speeds, the intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving west-northwest at an estimated motion of 290/7 kt. Octave should gradually turn towards the northwest later today, followed by a northward turn on Sunday with a decrease in forward speed as steering currents weaken. In about 48 h, there continue to be differences within the track guidance envelope and it is due to how much interaction occurs with a trough to the north of the system and a developing disturbance (Invest 99E) to the east. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous in the short-term, but is slightly faster with the eastward motion closest to the HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. Wind shear has started to decrease over the system, with marginally warm sea surface temperatures near 27 C along the forecast track. Thus, slight intensification is possible over the next day or two. By 48 h, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and a weakening trend is forecast as it interacts with a much larger system to the east. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous, showing some slight strengthening possible, although a lower peak intensity and lies near the simple intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.2N 124.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.6N 123.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 15.9N 121.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 15.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 15.6N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
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