Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030247 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025 Octave appears to be in a delicate state this evening. Hints of the low-level circulation appeared on the last-light GOES visible imagery while the afternoon's decaying convection drifted westward. However, a new burst of deep convection has developed just to the west of the center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have remained rather steady. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 50 kt, representing a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. The cyclone is moving steadily west-northwestward at 6 kt along the southern side of a weak subtropical ridge. The ridge should continue to steer Octave in this direction for the next couple of days. By day 3, the storm should slowly drift northward followed by a sharp turn to the east as it moves in the wake of a stronger tropical cyclone (Invest 99) off the coast of southwestern Mexico. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one, and is also similar to the multi-model consensus prediction. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the atmospheric conditions could become a little more conducive in about a day and a half. If Octave can maintain its current state, vertical wind shear is expected to abate Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening between 48 to 72 h, followed by steady weakening as the vertical wind shear is expected to increase once again. The near-term prediction lies on the high end of the guidance envelope and blends closer to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA, by the mid-to-latter portion of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 12.9N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 13.2N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 13.8N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 14.4N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 14.8N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 15.2N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 15.7N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 15.4N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
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