Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 012043 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025 In terms of organization, the storm has been holding fairly steady since earlier today. Deep convection is strongest over the southern portion of the circulation with tops to around -70 deg C with limited banding features at this time. Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the western semicircle and limited elsewhere, while the system is being affected by some easterly vertical wind shear. The current intensity estimate is held at 55 kt, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and close to an AI-objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS. Octave continues to move on a generally northwestward track at about 305/7 kt. A west-northwestward track is likely over the next day or so, while the cyclone is steered by the flow on the southern side of a weak subtropical high pressure area. In the latter part of the forecast period, a weakness in the subtropical ridge should induce a turn toward the north. Around the end of the period, the system is forecast to turn eastward due to the influence of a trough off the California coast and a larger developing tropical cyclone off the southwest coast of Mexico. The official track forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. Moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear should continue to affect Octave for the next couple of days while the system traverses marginally warm SSTs. The shear could relax somewhat by 72 hours, allowing for some strengthening later in the forecast period. However, the relatively small size of the system's circulation probably makes it more responsive to potentially less conducive conditions in the future environment. Given the uncertainties, the official forecast shows only slight strengthening. This is similar to the intensity model consensus, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.0N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.4N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 12.9N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.3N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 13.8N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 14.4N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 14.9N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 15.6N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 16.0N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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