Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270844 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Satellite imagery indicates that Narda’s overall cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours, although some slight cloud-top warming has been noted more recently. A well-defined curved band continues to wrap into the central dense overcast (CDO), which contains cloud-top temperatures as cold as –75 C. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 4.5/77 kt, while peak objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been holding just under 80 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. Narda is moving west-northwestward at 290/10 kt, and this general motion is expected to persist this morning. A gradual turn toward the north, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, is forecast later today and continue through the weekend. By early next week, as Narda remains over cooler waters and moves into a drier environment, it is expected to become increasingly influenced by low-level flow, which should result in a turn back toward the northwest by day 5. The forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Narda is now over SSTs below 26 C, and is forecast to continue moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass through the weekend. These conditions should induce a weakening trend beginning later this morning and continuing through the weekend. Narda is expected to fall below hurricane strength by late Sunday, then degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low early next week. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the higher end of the guidance envelope through much of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.2N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 21.0N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 29/1800Z 21.7N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/0600Z 22.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 23.6N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 25.7N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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