Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270236 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Narda’s overall structure has improved slightly during the past several hours. A 2108 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed a well-defined inner core with a symmetric eye embedded within the deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are both 4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 67–79 kt range. Based on these data and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. Narda is moving west-northwestward at 290/11 kt, which should persist into early Saturday. Thereafter, the system should gradually slow down as it turns northwestward, then north to north-northeast over the weekend as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge in response to an upper-level low near California and a shortwave trough digging southeastward over the northeast Pacific. By early next week, as Narda moves over cooler waters and into a drier environment, it is expected to become increasingly influenced by low-level flow, which should result in a turn back toward the northwest by day 5. The forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Narda is forecast to maintain its current strength into the overnight hours while it remains over 26–27 C waters with light to moderate vertical shear and sufficient mid- to upper-level moisture. By around 12 h, however, it will begin moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should induce a weakening trend beginning early Saturday and continuing through the weekend. Narda is expected to fall below hurricane strength by late Saturday night or early Sunday, and then degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low early next week. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the higher end of the guidance envelope into early Saturday, then trends toward the middle to upper portion of the guidance thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.3N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.8N 124.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.5N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.4N 126.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.5N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.2N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/0000Z 21.6N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 24.5N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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