Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262040 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025 There has not been much change with Narda over the past several hours. The hurricane still has a central dense overcast pattern in satellite images, but there is an asymmetry to the convection, with a large area of deep convection colder than -70C over the southern semicircle, with a somewhat smaller area of moderate convection with -30 to -50C cloud tops over the northern semicircle. Dry air appears to be infiltrating into the core via the weaker northwest quadrant. The latest CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T-4.5/77 kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been averaging in the 70-75 kt range over the past few hours. Given the hurricane force ASCAT-B vectors noted in a recent 1750 UTC pass, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt. Narda is moving west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 11 kt. A subtropical ridge located to the northwest of Narda will cause the hurricane to slow down and gradually turn toward the north over the next 48 hours as a trough located to the north pulls it slowly northward. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast was shifted slightly east of the previous forecast. This forecast lies well to the west of the latest HCCA corrected consensus and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. The hurricane is over 27C sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but is forecast to reach cooler water and cross the 26C isotherm in about 12 hours. Progressively cooler water and drier air should cause the system to fall below hurricane strength this weekend and decay to a post-tropical cyclone in a few days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is similar to the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.1N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.5N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.1N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 18.9N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 19.9N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 20.9N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 22.1N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 23.0N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen
Source link