Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252035 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A fortuitous 1329 UTC SAR RCM-1 NRCS image revealed a 15 nm symmetric eye beneath a small CDO and a deep convective curved band located over the eastern side of the cyclone. This afternoon's METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that the sustained tropical-storm-force winds have expanded over the eastern semi-circle of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 80 kt and is based on the various subjective and objective intensity estimates. There's still a small window of opportunity for Narda to strengthen some during the next 12-24 hours while it remains over warm waters, and favorable upper-wind conditions. Subsequently, Narda could once again become a category 2 hurricane by Friday. Over the weekend, Narda is expected to traverse progressively cooler SSTs while moving into more stable/drier thermodynamic environmental conditions. Accordingly, weakening should occur after day 1 and continue through the end of the period. The official intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and Decay-SHIPS statistical intensity guidance and specifies Narda becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be generally westward, or 280/14 kt. By Friday night, a mid-latitude upper-level trough situated over central California is expected to dip southward toward northern Baja California, causing Narda to slow down and gradually turn toward the northwest temporarily. By the 72-hour period, the cyclone should begin a north-northeast to northeast turn in response to an major shortwave trough approaching the U.S. west coast from the northeastern Pacific. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous forecast and lies between the HCCA Corrected Consensus aid and the GDM FNv3 ensemble model. Narda's wind radii have been adjusted based on a 1631 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 118.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.4N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.9N 122.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 124.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 19.1N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 22.1N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1800Z 23.6N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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