Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 232039 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 After steadily strengthening over the past day or so, Narda's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. Overall, the cloud pattern of the hurricane has not changed much during the past several hours and it continues to maintain a central dense overcast feature with outer rainbands surrounding it. The latest satellite intensity estimates have generally held steady today and support maintaining the initial wind speed at 75 kt. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago confirmed that Narda is a small hurricane with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend up to 80 n mi from the center. The hurricane has been losing latitude today, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 260/11 kt. This south of due west motion is caused by a strong subtropical ridge situated to Narda's north-northwest, and it should keep Narda on a general westward path for the next few days. After that time, the models show a weakness developing in the ridge associated with a cut off low moving southward over southern California, which should cause Narda to slow down and turn northwestward over the weekend. The NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one, based mostly on the more southward initial position and motion. Narda is likely to continue to strengthen through tonight. However, the latest models show a notable increase in easterly shear over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, and that could cause the intensity to level off. The shear is expected to lessen late Thursday and Friday, allowing an opportunity for Narda to strengthen again before it moves over cool waters and into a stable air mass this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term, but still lies near the high end of the guidance. Little change was made to the previous long-term intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.4N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 16.8N 121.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 18.5N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 20.4N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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