000 WTPZ43 KNHC 112033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025 High resolution GOES visible satellite imagery throughout today indicates that the disturbance south of Mexico has become better organized. The system has a partially exposed low-level circulation located near an area of bursting deep convection with cloud top temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving at an uncertain 300/5 kt. A mid-level ridge to centered over northern Mexico and Texas should steer the cyclone west-northwestward with an acceleration in forward speed during the next few days. Over the weekend, the system should turn more northwestward as it rounds the periphery of the ridge and continue that motion through the end of the forecast period. There is little cross-track variance in the guidance envelope, however, a bit more of an along-track spread. The official track forecast lies between the various consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance. The new cyclone has a rather small circulation. In the next couple of days, global models suggest vertical wind shear and the proximity to land should limit the system's ability to strengthen. By the weekend, environment conditions should become more conducive for steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to reach tropical storm strength in a day or so and become a hurricane by day 3. Late in the forecast period, cooler sea surface temperatures and dry mid-level humidities should induce a weakening trend. The initial NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. Predicted tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico. However, heavy rains and potentially gusty winds are possible along portions of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 15.5N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.1N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 16.7N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 17.3N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 18.2N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 18.6N 109.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 22.1N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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