442 WTPA44 PHFO 100234 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 40 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Tue Sep 09 2025 A new convective burst has developed in association with Kiko, with the strongest convection currently just north of the low-level center. Scatterometer data received since the last advisory indicated at least 35 kt winds in the northern semicircle, and based on this and the current convective trends the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. While the center of Kiko turned a little to the left during the past several hours, the longer-term motion remains west-northwestward at 285/12 kt. Kiko is expected to continue a general west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward speed during the next three days as it is steered by low-level easterly flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge. The new forecast track is adjusted a little to the left of the previous track based on the initial position, and it lies near or just north of the various consensus models. The cyclone is forecast to remain within a high shear environment over the next 12-18 h, and it is expected that Kiko will weaken to a depression during that time. After that, while the shear weakens for a time, the upper-level flow becomes convergent and the airmass around the cyclone is quite dry. This combination should eventually stop the associated convection, and Kiko is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h. The system is expected to dissipate completely between 72-96 h. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands tonight and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though interests should still monitor Kiko's progress and the latest forecasts. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak tonight through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 22.9N 156.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 23.4N 158.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 24.1N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.8N 162.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 25.6N 164.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 26.2N 166.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 26.7N 168.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Source link