750 WTPZ32 KNHC 042033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 PM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 114.8W ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 114.8 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move generally parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula while it weakens on Friday. Recent satellite-derived wind data and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of days, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday over water, to the west of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure, based on data from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 4 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
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