000 WTPZ32 KNHC 041742 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 1100 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 114.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move generally parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and could move closer to the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula while it weakens on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of days, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low near or to the west of the Baja California peninsula by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 5 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected somewhere within the warning area in Baja California Sur today through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Source link