092 WTPZ41 KNHC 310834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become better organized over the past 12 hours. A 0507 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined low-level circulation with peak winds near 25 kt. However, given the continued improvement in the satellite presentation and higher subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge situated to its north. This ridge is forecast to remain in place throughout the 5-day period, maintaining a general westward motion across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin and into the central Pacific basin late this week. The official forecast track is close to the consensus aids. Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear support steady strengthening during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and could reach hurricane strength by around 60 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter, the system’s track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the possibility of some mid-level dry air entrainment, could limit further intensification later in the week. The intensity forecast is near the middle to higher end of the guidance envelope through midweek, then trends closer to the consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 14.4N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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