000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 The depression has changed little over the past several hours, and it continues to maintain a broad structure with numerous bands of deep convection. The convection, however, is not particularly well organized and remains confined to the western half of the circulation due to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite estimates. Tropical Depression Ten-E is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt on the south side of a subtropical high. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as the steering pattern persists. After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest is forecast as the system moves into a weakness within the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The shear over the system is expected to lessen soon, and that should allow the cyclone to strengthen over the next day or two. However, any strengthening is likely to be short-lived as the system is expected to move over sub 26C waters in about 48 hours. The expected track over cooler water combined with a progressively drier airmass should cause a weakening trend, and ultimately lead to the system becoming a post-tropical low in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and lies fairly close to the IVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.5N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.2N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 19.2N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.4N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 21.7N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 26.3N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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