316 WTPA43 PHFO 130239 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 36 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Tue Aug 12 2025 Henriette is unraveling quickly. Since the prior advisory, its low-level circulation has become decoupled northwest from the remaining deep convection that is decreasing in coverage and intensity. An earlier scatterometer pass had a peak wind of 47 kt, but its likely Henriette has been weakening since that time. Subjective Dvorak estimates are decreasing as fast as they are allowed, and the initial intensity this advisory has been decreased to 45 kt, close to the most recent SATCON value. Henriette continues to move rapidly to the northwest, estimated at 315/16 kt. This general motion should continue for another 12-24 h, though now that the circulation has become more shallow, it is expected to now turn northward and then eastward around a large low-level subtropical ridge until it dissipates. Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is already near 20 kt in the direction of very dry mid-level air. This shear increases further from here on out, and both the global and regional-hurricane models show deep convection not returning over the small low-level vortex as it also moves over cooling sea-surface temperatures. Thus, the latest NHC forecast will show Henriette becoming post-tropical in 12 h, and dissipating entirely by 72 h, with its final resting place near the center of the North-Central Pacific subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is roughly in the middle of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 35.3N 164.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 37.1N 166.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 14/0000Z 39.6N 168.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z 41.8N 169.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z 43.4N 168.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1200Z 43.5N 166.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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