029 WTPZ44 KNHC 100834 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025 Ivo is weakening while it passes over the cooler waters well to the west of Baja California Sur, and its associated deep convection is gradually decreasing in coverage and intensity. Data from an excellent scatterometer overpass just before 0500 UTC showed that the maximum winds have decreased to near 35 kt. Subjective Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB, along with objective Dvorak values from UW-CIMSS gave a similar intensity estimate, indicating that Ivo is now at minimal tropical storm strength. Center fixes indicate that the cyclone continues to move west-northwestward, or at about 285/7 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge is predicted to remain to the north of Ivo during the next couple of days. The system is likely to turn more westward with a slight increase in forward speed in a day or so as the increasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The official forecast track is very similar to the one from the previous advisory. Ivo is moving over cooler waters with gradually decreasing environmental moisture. Therefore weakening should continue, and the system will likely degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours or so. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC forecast and near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 21.5N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 22.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 23.1N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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