525 WTPZ44 KNHC 100232 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Convection associated with Ivo has continued to slowly decrease during the past 6 hours, but the cyclone's overall appearance hasn't changed drastically. The latest TAFB Dvorak Current Intensity estimate is still 45 kt, which is similar to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON, valid around 2210 UTC (43 kt). Therefore, no change was made to the 45-kt intensity estimate for this advisory. No noteworthy changes were made to any aspect of the NHC forecast. Ivo is moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment and is therefore forecast to gradually weaken, as shown by all of the intensity guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS, ECMWF and HAFS models indicates Ivo will become post-tropical within about 36 h. Ivo's motion is now west-northwestward, still at 6 kt. All models continue to forecast that Ivo will gradually turn due west in a day or two as it weakens and is steered by the low-level flow. The model forecast agreement is very good with respect to all aspects of Ivo's evolution during the next couple of days until it dissipates early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 21.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.7N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 22.8N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 23.0N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 23.1N 124.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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