000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080916 CCA TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 Corrected T-number in the first paragraph Ivo seems to be responding to the conducive environmental conditions. Convection has been building within the core of the storm and geostationary satellite imagery has depicted a growing CDO overnight. The small storm has managed to elude recent scatterometer and microwave overpasses and no new information has been collected with respect to the low-level structure. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this cycle based on persistence, which is slightly above the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.0/45 kt. Ivo is moving quickly along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge at 295/18 kt. The ridge is expected to continue turning the storm toward the west during the next couple of days with a significant decrease in forward motion. Ivo is forecast to stay well south of the Baja California peninsula. The latest official track forecast lies slightly to the south of the previous prediction beyond the 24 h forecast time. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for strengthening during the next day or so. The NHC intensity forecast still brings Ivo up to hurricane strength within a day, however this peak lies above all the latest model guidance. It should be noted that this portion of the forecast has higher-than-average uncertainty due to the high spread in the model guidance. Beyond 24 hours, the model and official forecasts come into better agreement when Ivo moves over cooling sea surface temperatures and into a dry and stable environment with moderate vertical wind shear. The system is still expected to become a remnant low within a few day and open into a trough by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 20.4N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.7N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 22.1N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 22.2N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
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