193 WTPZ43 KNHC 040850 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula have become better organized during the past 12 hours. Additionally, an overnight ASCAT pass showed a well-defined circulation with peak winds near 30 kt. Given the improved convective organization and well-defined circulation, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a blend of the ASCAT pass and Dvorak current intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is estimated at 300/13 kt, along the southern side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to remain in place through the 5-day period, steering the system generally west-northwestward for the entire forecast. A slightly more westward motion is possible by day 4 as the cyclone becomes more shallow and is steered within the low- to mid-level flow. The updated track forecast is close to the consensus aids. The system is forecast to steadily strengthen during the next couple of days as it moves over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment. It is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday and could approach hurricane strength between 36 and 60 hours. After that time, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as the cyclone moves over sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C and begins to entrain drier mid-level air within a more stable environment. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models supports this scenario, showing a reduction in deep convection as the system continues west-northwestward into the central Pacific basin. The forecast is slightly above the intensity guidance through 60 hours, then is in good agreement with the consensus aids thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.4N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.4N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 16.4N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 17.4N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 18.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 19.8N 138.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 21.2N 145.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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