863 WTPZ42 KNHC 030832 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 Satellite imagery shows the convection north of the low-level circulation quickly diminishing as Gil continues west-northwestward over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable environment. A timely ASCAT pass revealed peak winds of around 45 kt in the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 3.0/45 kt to 3.5/55 kt, which are slightly higher than objective satellite estimates. Based on a blend of these data and the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. The initial motion is estimated at 290/16 kt. Gil is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north, and this general motion is expected to continue Sunday. A gradual decrease in forward speed is anticipated by Monday, followed by a turn toward the west as the shallow remnant low becomes steered by the low-level flow. The updated track forecast remains close to the previous advisory and continues to follow the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Continued movement over progressively cooler waters, intrusion of dry mid-level air, and the onset of increasing west-southwesterly shear should accelerate Gil’s weakening trend. Simulated satellite imagery from global models continues to suggest that Gil will lose its deep convection and become post-tropical late Sunday, or in about 24 hours. The system is then forecast to gradually spin down and dissipate within a few days, likely by day 4, as it opens into a trough northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.8N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.4N 139.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 04/1800Z 21.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z 22.2N 147.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 22.5N 149.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
Source link