000 WTPZ42 KNHC 022037 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 Gil is holding steady this afternoon as it traverses cool waters. Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that convection remains confined to the northeast semicircle of the circulation, with the southwestern portion largely devoid of deep convection. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates, as well as a recent ASCAT pass, indicate that the intensity has not changed much. Based on this data, the initial intensity of Gil remains at 60 kt. The tropical storm continues to move west-northwestward at about 295/17 under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the north, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, as Gil continues to weaken and is increasingly steered by the low-level flow, a gradual turn toward the west is expected. The track forecast is very close to the previous official forecast and represents a blend of the tightly clustered consensus aids. Gil is forecast to weaken as it moves over increasingly cooler waters for the next several days. Global models indicate that deep convection will largely diminish after about 36 h, at which time the cyclone will become post-tropical. After about 48 h, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly detrimental, with shear increasing and mid-level moisture decreasing. The cyclone is expected to dissipate after 96 h. The new forecast is similar to both the prior forecast and the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.0N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.0N 132.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.0N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 21.9N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1800Z 22.3N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 22.6N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 23.0N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 23.6N 151.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett
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