232 WTPA42 PHFO 292037 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 6 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025 Keli is a ragged-looking tropical storm. Thunderstorms have been developing in the eastern semicircle of the the circulation suggesting some decrease in the southeasterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC were T2.5 and T2.0, respectively, and the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt. Keli is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward from the center about 30 n mi. The storm appears to be gradually accelerating and is moving westward at 13 kt. A narrow ridge to the north should continue to steer Keli westward through the next day or so. The track guidance envelope has shifted northward and increased in forward speed this cycle. Thus, the official track forecast has been nudged poleward and is slightly faster, lying between the previous forecast and the various consensus aids. Only minimal changes have been made to the intensity forecast. Atmospheric conditions and the storm's proximity to Hurricane Iona are expected to gradually weaken Keli. Model guidance has been advancing the dissipation of this small storm, and the official forecast now shows Keli opening into a trough by 48 h. However, dissipation could still occur sooner than expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 12.8N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.2N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 13.6N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 13.8N 159.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
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