000 WTPA42 PHFO 290835 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 4 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 28 2025 Keli has not changed much this evening, with an area of deep convection to the west of the low-level center. The system is struggling to become better organized due to vertical wind shear. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T2.0 from both PHFO and JTWC. Using these estimates and satellite trends, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Keli is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward about 30 n mi from the center. The storm is moving westward, with an estimated motion of 280/10 kt. Keli is forecast to continue moving generally westward for the next few days steered by a mid-level ridge north of the system. The official track forecast is similar to the previous, although with a slightly faster forward motion. Keli is forecast to remain over warm sea surface temperatures, but wind shear is forecast to increase later today, thus the official intensity forecast shows little change in intensity during the next day or so. As Keli continues to feel the upper-level outflow of nearby Hurricane Iona the system should begin to weaken by 36 h, and dissipate by Day 3. The official intensity forecast lies near the simple and corrected consensus aids. Global models indicate that the shear could take its toll on Keli quicker than forecast, and due to the small storm size it is possible that the system could dissipate into a trough earlier then officially forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 12.5N 146.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 12.7N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 13.1N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 13.3N 154.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 13.3N 157.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 13.2N 160.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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