Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

459 
WTNT44 KNHC 142044
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Convective banding associated with the cyclone continued to improve
especially over the western semicircle of the system after the
release of the 1500 UTC advisory.  A couple of Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that have flew through the system early
this afternoon reported dropsonde data that supported a minimum
pressure of 998 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 42 kt.
These data supported the upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm
Sara on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory.  The latest Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB also support 
35 kt, therefore the initial intensity for this advisory is at that 
value. 

The forward speed of Sara is beginning to decrease as expected.  
The cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 9 kt.  Sara 
should continue to move westward during the next couple of days to 
the south of a strong mid-level ridge, however a continued 
deceleration of Sara's forward speed is expected.  By Sunday, the 
center of the ridge is forecast to move eastward over Florida which 
should cause Sara to turn west-northwestward when it approaches 
Belize and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Most of 
the track guidance has nudged northward this cycle, and the NHC 
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The new track continues to 
be along or just north of the coast of northern Honduras and it is 
in good agreement with the latest consensus aids. 

Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening 
during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is 
the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to 
land.  Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the 
northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested 
by most of the guidance.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for some 
strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little 
change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan 
peninsula.  It should be noted that a more northern track, could 
result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most 
of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario.  The global 
models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it 
moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not 
likely to survive the passage over the peninsula.  Therefore, the 
new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5. 



KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause 
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over portions 
of northern Honduras. 

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, 
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy 
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding 
and mudslides. 

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds.  Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 15.9N  83.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 16.0N  84.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 16.1N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 16.1N  85.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 16.1N  86.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 16.3N  87.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 16.7N  88.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 19.3N  90.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown