Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100830
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Rafael continues to gradually weaken.  Satellite images show that
the low-level center remains exposed, with an area of shrinking deep
convection located well east of the center.  The initial intensity
is reduced to 35 kt, in accordance with nearby buoy observations and
recent satellite intensity estimates.  Gradual weakening is 
expected due to a harsh environment of very dry air aloft and wind 
shear.  The system should lose organized deep convection later 
today and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.  Only 
small changes were made to the previous intensity forecast.

The storm is basically drifting to the north-northwest now, and   
Rafael is forecast to make a small clockwise loop during the next 
day or so over the central Gulf of Mexico in light steering 
currents.  After that time, the low-level flow should steer the 
cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward, and the 
remnant low should open up into a trough of low pressure in about 3 
days.  The new forecast is a touch east of the previous one in the 
near term and also shows dissipation a little sooner based on the 
latest model solutions.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions
of southwestern and central Louisiana through this morning.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 26.1N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 26.4N  91.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 26.2N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1800Z 25.4N  90.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0600Z 24.3N  91.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1800Z 23.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake