Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 092057
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

The center of Rafael has become exposed to the southwest of its
associated convective mass in visible satellite images. The
low-level circulation is becoming broader and less defined, and the
cold overcast from the sheared convection has contracted and warmed
this afternoon. Overall, the storm appears less organized as it
contends with westerly shear and a dry mid-level environment. A
partial ASCAT pass showed 35-40 kt winds in the northeast quadrant,
but may not have sampled the area of strongest winds. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt, which is consistent with a blend of the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The storm should continue weakening tonight due to the negative
effects of increasing westerly shear and continued intrusions of dry
mid-level air. In fact, the latest simulated satellite imagery from
the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Rafael could become devoid of
convection as early as Sunday. The official NHC forecast now shows
post-tropical/remnant low status at 36 h, but further timing
adjustments could be necessary if current trends continue. Rafael is
beginning to slow down (300/4 kt), and the storm is likely to
meander within weakening steering currents over the central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Sunday. Then, the shallow vortex should become
steered by the prevailing low-level flow on Monday and move toward
the south and south-southwest through the middle of next week. Most
of the guidance shows the remnant low spinning down and opening into
a trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late in the 5-day
forecast period, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation by 120 h.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are 
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the 
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant 
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy 
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions 
of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 25.5N  91.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 25.7N  91.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 26.0N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 25.7N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z 24.6N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 23.3N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 22.2N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z 21.0N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart