Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT23 KNHC 081432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  88.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE  90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  88.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  88.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N  89.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N  91.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N  91.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.8N  91.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.9N  91.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N  91.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N  92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.6N  92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  88.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI