Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 081433
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Rafael has lost a little strength, but remains a powerful hurricane. 
Although the eye that was apparent in satellite images overnight has 
filled, the system still has a well organized central dense overcast 
pattern with compact banding features surrounding it. The Air Force 
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning and 
based on their data, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt. The 
minimum pressure is estimated to be 961 mb based on dropsonde 
information. Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with 
tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend 
only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively.

Although the waters are still relatively warm over the Gulf of 
Mexico, a combination of increasing westerly vertical wind shear and 
intrusions of dry air should promote steady to rapid weakening 
during the next few days. The intensity models are in good agreement 
on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is a touch lower than the 
previous one. Rafael is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on 
Saturday and degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.

Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge 
that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf 
of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected 
during the next 24 hours or so as the ridge weakens. A trough 
approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering 
currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to 
meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system 
becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected 
in the low-level flow. Despite the complex steering, the models 
are in fair agreement and this forecast is generally similar to the 
previous one.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 24.5N  88.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 24.7N  89.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 25.1N  91.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 25.5N  91.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 25.8N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 25.9N  91.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 25.5N  91.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 23.7N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z 22.6N  92.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi