Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 080559
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Special Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Satellite imagery this morning depicts that Rafael continues to wrap 
deep convection around the center of the system, with cold cloud 
tops near -85 C. GLM satellite data shows lightning is occuring in 
the eastern eyewall. Subjective and objective intensity estimates 
have continued to rise from the previous advisory and range from 100 
to 115 kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and these 
estimates the current intensity is raised to 105 kt, which required 
the special advisory. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning.

The initial motion is 280/8 kt, and a general westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as 
Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. There were no 
changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory.

Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and 
warm sea surface temperature, which has allowed the current 
intensification to occur. Additional strengthening is possible 
today, and the latest NHC forecast was adjusted in the short term 
through 36 h given the current higher intensity.  After that, 
westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not 
likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the 
circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the 
latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near 
the consensus aids beyond 48 h.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0600Z 24.7N  87.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 24.7N  88.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 24.8N  89.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 25.1N  91.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 25.2N  91.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 25.3N  92.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 24.9N  92.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 23.7N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 22.0N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly