Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory

873 
WTNT23 KNHC 071451
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  85.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  85.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  84.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N  86.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N  88.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N  89.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N  91.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.7N  91.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N  92.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N  93.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  40SW  50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N  94.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  40SW  40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  85.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART