Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FONT13 KNHC 071452
PWSAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GFMX 290N 870W 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)

BURAS LA       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   3(14)   1(15)   1(16)

HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   5(17)   2(19)   X(19)

MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   6(14)   2(16)   1(17)

CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)

MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   1(11)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   6(18)   1(19)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

MERIDA MX      34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

COZUMEL MX     34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART