Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 070847
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

Satellite images show that Rafael remains fairly well-organized, 
with very cold convective cloud tops, although the Central Dense 
Overcast is a bit ragged looking.  Convective banding features are 
limited and no eye is evident on the imagery at this time.  
Upper-level outflow is restricted over the western semicircle of the 
circulation, indicative of some westerly vertical wind shear over 
the tropical cyclone.  An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission 
into the system measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 101 kt in the 
northeast quadrant which equates to a peak surface wind of about 90 
kt.  This  intensity is also supported by a blend of the latest 
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.  Another Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rafael later 
this morning. 

The hurricane continues to move away from western Cuba with an 
initial motion of about 305/10 kt.  Rafael is located on the 
southwest side of mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic 
and the Florida Peninsula.  Most of the global models guidance 
shows this ridge building westward, albeit weakly, over the 
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.  As a result, Rafael 
should turn westward with some decrease in forward speed during the 
next 2-3 days.  Then, the majority of the models show a ridge 
building to the west of the system.  This steering evolution would 
cause Rafael to turn more southward, and this is shown by the 
dynamical model consensus track prediction.  The new official 
forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous NHC track but is 
not as far south as the consensus.  The motion is likely to be 
quite slow during the latter part of the forecast period.  There 
remains significant uncertainty in the future track of Rafael over 
the Gulf of Mexico and additional adjustments to subsequent official 
track forecasts are likely.

Southwesterly vertical wind shear should continue to affect Rafael, 
although the latest SHIPS model output does not show very strong 
shear over the system during the next several days.  However, the 
numerical guidance does indicate very dry air around Rafael through 
the forecast period, which should induce weakening. If the system 
moves farther south over the Gulf than currently anticipated, it 
could encounter lower wind shear, and likely a more moist air mass.  
This could result in Rafael maintaining its intensity more than 
currently expected.  For now, the official intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous one and calls for weakening later in the 
period.  This is similar to the latest model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the Dry Tortugas 
through this morning.

2. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to 
western Cuba today.  Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along 
the higher terrain.

3. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week.  Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 24.2N  84.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 24.4N  85.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 24.5N  87.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 24.6N  89.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 24.6N  90.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 24.6N  91.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 24.6N  92.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 24.2N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 23.5N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch