Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 060850
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 81.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 81.3 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or two,
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba
later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph 
(150 km/h) with higher gusts.   Rapid strengthening is forecast, 
and Rafael could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes 
landfall in Cuba later today.  Rafael could briefly weaken over 
Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico as a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft observations is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in 
portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours.  
Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of 
Youth today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of 
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and 
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in 
central Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba.  Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches
are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with
isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of
higher terrain.  This will lead to areas of flash flooding and
mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of
Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and
could raise water levels by as much as 8 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on
Wednesday.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts