Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 060256
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...HURRICANE RAFAEL PASSING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed 
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was 
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. Rafael is 
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general 
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, 
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. 
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to pass through the Cayman 
Islands tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move 
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night.

Aircraft dropsonde data indicates that maximum sustained winds have 
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional 
rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 12-18 hours, and 
Rafael is now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it 
makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael could briefly weaken 
over Cuba but is then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf 
of Mexico as a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An observation site on Cayman Brac recently reported a 
wind gust of 80 mph (129 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde
observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
tonight and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts
of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible farther east in central Cuba late tonight into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on
Wednesday.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Florida 
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the 
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread 
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week 
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Papin