Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT23 KNHC 052040
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
2100 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  79.6W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  75SE  70SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  79.6W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  79.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N  80.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N  82.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.1N  83.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N  85.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.4N  86.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.8N  87.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.1N  90.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.8N  90.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  79.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN