Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT23 KNHC 051448
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
1500 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  78.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  78.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  78.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N  79.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N  81.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N  83.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.4N  84.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.1N  85.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.6N  87.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N  89.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N  90.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN