Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory

174 
WTNT23 KNHC 050851
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0900 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  78.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  78.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  77.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N  79.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.3N  80.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N  82.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N  84.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N  85.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.8N  86.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N  89.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.8N  90.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  78.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH