Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 262035
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

The cloud pattern of Kristy continues to decay, with the low-level 
center now exposed to the south of what remains of the mid-level 
circulation due to strong shear.  The current intensity is set to 55 
kt using a blend of the most recent Dvorak estimates.  A 
continuation of this shear along with cool water temps should 
lead to further weakening, and Kristy is forecast to become a 
remnant low early on Sunday.  The new intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous one and the latest consensus aids.

The storm continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt.  Kristy 
should turn more westward overnight as the circulation becomes more 
vertically shallow and steered by a low-level ridge.  Other than 
a small westward adjustment, little change was made to the NHC 
track forecast, and the new prediction lies just west of the 
consensus guidance. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 20.7N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake