Hurricane Kristy Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 241431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  933 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 105SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 119.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  50SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 120.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS