Hurricane Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 241432
PWSEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 120W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

15N 125W       34  3  93(96)   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
15N 125W       50  X  73(73)   6(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
15N 125W       64  X  38(38)   9(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)

20N 125W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)

15N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  40(43)  40(83)   X(83)   X(83)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  37(48)   X(48)   X(48)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   X(21)   X(21)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)

20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)

25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS