Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222053
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024

Recent satellite and ASCAT data show Kristy has strengthened 
significantly over the last six hours. Satellite imagery shows 
persistent convection starting to wrap around a potential inner 
core, with high-level cirrus clouds beginning to clear out, 
revealing a developing eye. The ASCAT pass from 1618z showed a 
robust wind field, with a max wind retrieval of 53 kt. The 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates also concur with these 
observations, with T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB at 
18 UTC. Given the improvement on satellite since that time, the 
initial intensity is now set at the upper-end of these estimates at 
65 kt, making Kristy a hurricane.

Kristy continues to move just north of due west this afternoon as it 
skirts along the periphery of a deep-layered subtropical 
ridge. Current motion is set at 275/16 kt and this westward motion 
should continue for the next couple of days. The cyclone will begin 
to track poleward starting this weekend around 60-72 hours as a 
mid-level trough impinges on the ridge. Uncertainty increases by 
that time given differences in the global models as to the evolution 
of the synoptic pattern.  As such, the latest NHC track forecast 
remains close to the previous one over the next couple of days and 
is just a little to the south of the previous forecast track 
thereafter.

The intensity forecast remains quite bullish, with rapid 
intensification expected within the next 12-24 hours as Kristy 
encounters a very favorable environment as indicated by the GFS- and 
ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. The latter aid also indicates a 40 percent 
chance of a 40 kt increase in intensity in 24 hours, nearly ten 
times the climatological average. The latest NHC forecast will 
explicitly show Kristy intensifying up to 100 kt major hurricane 
intensity in 24 h, with a peak intensity of 115 kt at 60 h. After 
60-72 h, Kristy will encounter a more hostile environment, with 
increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures which will 
likely weaken the cyclone by the end of the forecast. Kristy is 
likely to become post-tropical in 120 h as it loses convective 
organization. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 14.7N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin