Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221450
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 112.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 125.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  40SW  55NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/TORRES-VAZQUEZ=