Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220242
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024

Kristy is becoming better organized this evening.  Bursts of deep 
convection are wrapping around the western semicircle of the 
circulation with upper-level outflow also present in this region. 
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range between 35 to 53 kt. 
The initial intensity for this advisory is raised to 40 kt, closest 
to the UW-CIMSS DMINT objective Dvorak estimate.

The tropical storm is heading westward at 270/14 kt.  This general 
motion should continue through Thursday while Kristy moves along the 
southern side of a subtropical ridge.  By Friday and Saturday, the 
storm will reach a weakness in the ridge caused by a cutoff low 
over the north Pacific and gradually turn west-northwestward to 
northwestward.  The latest track forecast is quite similar to the 
previous forecast and lies near the various consensus aids.  

The fragmented convection seen on satellite infrared imagery seems 
to indicate that there is a dry air intrusion possibly slowing 
Kristy's present organization.  However, atmospheric and oceanic 
conditions are quickly becoming more conducive for significant to 
rapid intensification.  Statistical guidance from SHIPS-RII is 
showing a high chance (72 percent) of 25 kt of strengthening in 24 
h.  Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast now explicitly 
forecasts this increase, making Kristy a hurricane on Tuesday and 
nudging up the peak to 100 kt in 60 h.  On Friday and Saturday, the 
vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce a weakening 
trend.  This intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance 
envelope, between the HCCA and the previous prediction. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 13.7N 103.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci