Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory

161 
WTNT21 KNHC 200843
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  73.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT.......  5NE   5SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  73.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  72.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N  74.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   5SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N  75.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.8N  76.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.7N  76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.7N  75.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.8N  74.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N  73.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG