Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FONT11 KNHC 200253
PWSAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024               
0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

ANDROS         34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

GREAT EXUMA    34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   7(14)  16(30)   1(31)   X(31)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAN SALVADOR   34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)  16(24)   3(27)   X(27)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MAYAGUANA      34  6   3( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   8(20)   1(21)   X(21)

GRAND TURK     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  2  23(25)  14(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MONTEGO BAY    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

KINGSTON       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PUERTO PLATA   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART