882
FONT11 KNHC 192041
PWSAT1
HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12)
GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 20(36) 2(38) X(38)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAN SALVADOR 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 18(28) 7(35) X(35)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MAYAGUANA 34 12 11(23) 3(26) 2(28) 10(38) 4(42) X(42)
MAYAGUANA 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND TURK 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GRAND TURK 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 9( 9) 22(31) 6(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities
19
Oct