Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT21 KNHC 191457
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  70.2W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  70.2W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  69.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N  71.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N  73.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N  74.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N  75.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N  75.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N  72.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  70.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

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FORECASTER PAPIN