Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 190843
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152024
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

ASCAT data from 0309 UTC showed that the disturbance over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea had developed a closed circulation and
well-defined center, with a swath of 30-35 kt winds extending north
off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Based on that information,
the system was designated as Tropical Storm Nadine in the 1 AM CDT
(0600 UTC) intermediate advisory.  Satellite data and radar images
from Belize indicate that Nadine's structure is broad but is
gradually becoming better organized, and the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt.  Winds to tropical 
storm force have been measured along the coast as far north as 
Cancun.

The scatterometer data showed that Nadine formed a little farther
south than where the disturbance was previously estimated, but the
initial motion is still westward (270 degrees) at 8 kt.  Nadine
should begin moving faster toward the west through the day while
being steered by a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  There
is good agreement among the track models, and the NHC track
forecast lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.  On this
track, Nadine's center should make landfall along the Belize coast
sometime late morning or midday and then continue westward across
northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into
tonight.

Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine
reaches the coast due to low atmospheric wind shear and ocean
temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius.  Weakening is forecast
after Nadine moves inland, and the storm should fall below tropical
storm strength later this afternoon.  Nadine is likely to dissipate
over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday.


Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track
of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern
Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the
warning area through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 17.4N  87.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 17.2N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/0600Z 17.0N  91.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg