Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 102035
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton's satellite appearance has continued to take on an 
extratropical appearance, and ASCAT data from a few hours ago 
confirmed that the cyclone has become frontal.  Based on that 
information, Milton was declared post tropical in the 2 pm 
intermediate advisory.  The ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of 
55-60 kt to the northwest of the center, so the initial intensity 
is set to 60 kt.

Milton has turned eastward and sped up a bit (080/18 kt).  A 
general eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is 
expected during the next several days, with the extratropical low 
forecast to pass south of Bermuda in 24-36 hours.  Global model 
fields and intensity models indicate that the intensity should 
gradually decrease during the next several days, and this is 
reflected in the official forecast.  Dissipation is shown by day 4, 
although there is still some uncertainty if Milton will become 
absorbed by the frontal zone before that time, or retain its 
identity beyond 4 days.

Since all storm surge and tropical storm warnings have been 
discontinued, this will be the last advisory on Milton.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds and coastal flooding will gradually diminish along
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through tonight.

2. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of 
considerable urban flooding will linger through this evening across 
east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing 
and forecast throughout central Florida.

3. In Florida, continue to use caution since deadly hazards remain, 
including downed power lines and flooded areas.  Ensure generators 
are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away 
from doors, windows, and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
If you are cleaning up storm damage, be careful when using
chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 29.5N  76.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  11/0600Z 29.6N  72.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  11/1800Z 29.8N  67.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/0600Z 30.4N  62.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/1800Z 31.0N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  13/0600Z 32.1N  54.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1800Z 33.7N  49.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg